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The Unknown to Determine the Championship?

 

February 12, 2007

Jay Staton - SCR

 

If this were a “normal” season guesses would be made on the 2007 championship based on team momentum and perhaps team member changes since 2006. 

 

This year, however, is really hard to figure. There is not one, but three wildcards that will play into the ’07 Cup that not only have the teams never experienced, but which are to a large part hard to figure out in advance, and clearly they are concerned. Let’s examine each of them, in order of difficulty. 

 

The Points System:  

 

There are still those that are calculating theoretical Cup winners based on the “Old System”, that is, pre 2004. It is a moot point, the Chase is what it is, and Jimmie Johnson’s keeping the (championship) ring. The 2007 system is even further away from the original point system, and I cannot wait to see how it all shakes out. 

 

As you know, after 26 races the points are reset, with the Top Twelve becoming part of the Chase for the final ten races to determine the Championship. The points will be equalized with bonus points being awarded for wins throughout the season. 

 

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This is a new thing for the Teams, but is at least the answer and the strategy are clearly understandable—win the race, week in and week out. Shift everything toward the win. Teams will be using the wilder cam, the lighter crankshaft, be running the more aggressive chassis setup, and so on. Drivers will know that they still have to drive conservatively enough to not have a problem, but now a win is critical, and ninth, or second, is not something to be settled for. All of this will absolutely provide a better race; NASCAR will have definitely achieved their goal—to improve the show. 

 

Secondly, there is the Car of Tomorrow (COT): 

 

There are those that have always liked it (the Petty’s, myself and maybe somebody else out there) and those that don’t (80% of the rest of the garage) but the teams are taking it seriously now. After all, it will be run in approximately 44% of the races-that-need-to-be-won in 2007. This is a much bigger wildcard. Even though the big boys—Penske, Hendrick, and certainly Roush and Evernham—are all working hard to develop a good racecar, they know that the current car is somewhat of a known deal, and the Car of Tomorrow, well, isn’t.  

 

The last time that NASCAR downsized was in 1981. Most GM teams went with a Buick Regal or Oldsmobile Cutlass, but Bobby Allison’s group settled on a Pontiac Lemans, which had a more steeply raked back window, resulting in less turbulence, more rear down force, and a faster car. NASCAR leveled the playing field, and ironically the best looking racecar on the track was essentially legislated out of competition.  

 

Clearly with the Car of Tomorrow, there will not be that big of an advantage gained, but make no mistake, the Team that figures the thing out first will be one of the twelve contenders for the Cup. 

 

There is another similarity to that last downsizing that the France family no doubt remembers—a lot of grumbling. But the competitors adapted, pretty quick the whole deal smoothed out, and the racing ultimately improved. So it will inevitably be with the Car of Tomorrow.  

 

This too, the existing teams have at least some control over. That is, quit whining and embrace the COT. That is a choice, and if they haven’t made it previously, you can be this is coming up at team meetings throughout Charlotte on Monday mornings. 

Time will tell, but I am convinced that ultimately the new (old) car will make for better driver safety AND better racing. 

 

And finally, Toyota

 

Existing Cup Teams are simply nervously guessing at how Toyota’s cubic dollars will affect the sport. Even if Jack Roush acquires a business partner he will still have to wonder if it will be enough—after all, who knows just what Toyota can spend? This is a tough one, but in the end, again, the only thing that the existing teams can do is sharpen their game.

     

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Of course, the Toyota teams are performance driven as well. They know they have an uphill battle, at least initially, and they do not want to do anything that will turn off the money supply. 

 

All of this will further improve the racing, and I am confident that NASCAR has not forgotten how to level the playing field—continuously, as they did with the Tuflon Pontiac back in 1981. 

 

Just as in Cup, by and large, big concerns in life from ‘81 are now small concerns today. Interestingly, although the teams labor long and hard in the shops, they at least are working on mechanical things that they have some control over. We identify with their trials as we walk into 2007 with unknowns in our everyday lives, things that are now different, or could become different. It is interesting that they are not really unknown, just unknown to us. 

 

The lesson learned from our friends on the track is summed up in a quote discovered during research for this article: “If you must choose between two evils, pick the one you’ve never tried before”, inferring of course, to keep The Faith, to keep trying, and to leave the evils that you have tried… behind.
  
 Questions, Comments;
 
The views and opinions in this article are that of the writer(s) and not necessarily that of SCR
 

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Born on: July 8, 2005

Copyright Symbol 2006 StockCar Review.